By
JOHN SCHERBER
ANGER MANAGEMENT
The entrance of
Donald Trump onto the Republican side of the primary season provides an
interesting symmetry. With Bernie Sanders, we now have a perceived outsider in
a prominent position on both sides. The anger that we saw against the
Democratic incumbents in the Congressional election of 2014 has now surfaced on
the Republican side as well. Its volume and intensity appear to have swelled. The
clear and growing perception is that no one currently in power, or emerging
from establishment circles, represents the public interest. If ever there was
to be a Sanders moment, this is it.
The boyish
charm of Donald Trump is more complex. I use the term boyish not to be
dismissive, but because he does not appear to be approaching any degree of
political maturity. He is a middle finger, up yours kind of candidate whose
contempt for the establishment has catapulted him into the lead on the
Republican side. He has no discernable program aside from bashing México. He
has no government experience, and his leadership skills are of a type that
function best in the dictatorial climate of privately held business.
Politics
requires a different kind of leadership, one that can work with people of
opposing views, and can get things done in an atmosphere of slender majorities
and coalitions. One that understands the uses of compromise. There is presently
no sign that Trump could define any of these terms. Still, at present he leads
in the polls where a large group of Republican contenders has not yet provided
an alternative challenger of similar appeal.
His support is
often that of the naysayer. His slogan is Enough! If raw ego were a qualification,
he would be the best choice for the job. His position, after his misogynistic
attack on Fox’s Megan Kelly, is eroding among more traditional Republican
groups. He has refused to affirm his loyalty to the Republican Party should he
not win the nomination, and the possibility grows that he may take his support
and run a third party candidacy.
On the other
side, Bernie Sanders does not have the lead in the polls, but his growth is
steady and on track to overtake Hillary Clinton sometime in the fall. On the
other hand, her ratings in honesty and trustworthiness slide continuously. She
seems to not get it as she lies to the crowds, as if her word is as golden as
her checkbook.
I’m sure that
this is causing a great deal of discomfort to the moneyed interests who control
the Democratic Party behind the populist façade. They know that Sanders is not
their friend, while Clinton is their darling. While his socialist program is
not likely to get through Congress, Sanders’ presence in the White House could
cramp the style of many of the corporate sponsors now in control of government
policy.
As I scan the
offerings of my Facebook ‘friends,’ I sense they are about 80% Democrats or
liberals. Watching the political posters they put up, I am seeing the usual
barrage of anti-Republican material, most of it on the order of the pot calling
the kettle black. There is little in favor of Donald Trump. I am seeing almost
nothing that is pro-Hillary Clinton, but much that is against her. The huge
trend is in favor of Bernie Sanders.
This is a small
sample and in no way scientific, but it suggests the way things are going at
this point.
Sanders has
long called himself an Independent, although he caucuses with the Democrats for
practical reasons. I don’t think his party allegiance goes that deep. He has
committed to support the Democratic nominee. Should it become apparent as his
support grows, that the powers that be in the Democratic Party will do whatever
it takes to deny him the nomination, which can most likely be done through
procedural means, I don’t see why he would stay in the Party despite hos
promise, since he is clearly feeling his own momentum. He is a man who believes
deeply in his cause. Principled people often choose principle over
practicality. His departure would open the way for a clean nomination of
Hillary Clinton, but one that promised little chance of victory in November of
2016.
Should Donald
Trump also bolt, then you will have a four-way race. Until then, he will get
little support from the Republican establishment, which is no less beholden to
special interests, and also dislikes a loose cannon of his magnitude. He is
vulnerable on the issue of women, and at bottom, few people know what he stands
for, probably including himself. His personal wealth frees him from dependence
on the usual Republican contributors. The only clear issue is that he’s against
what’s going on in Washington and for Donald Trump. Unfortunately, this will be
enough for some people, just as in Ms. Clinton’s case, it will be sufficient
for some that she is a woman.
It is also
possible that she could be taken down by some new scandal, particularly if one
surfaces that has legal implications. This is by no means impossible, and we
can rely on both the agents of the Republicans and of Bernie Sanders to be
digging with both hands.
Let’s look at
what can happen in a four-way race where no candidate receives a majority of
the vote. The Constitution states that 270 electoral votes (half plus one) are
required to win the presidency. If no candidate gets that many, and in a
four-way election it’s not likely any of them would, then the presidential part
of the election goes to the House. The House will still be controlled by the
Republicans, since the new Congress will not be seated until January. The
Senate, which will also still be in Republican hands, will decide who the Vice
President is, from among the four candidates.
Thus, Bernie
Sanders appears to be the critical player in this event. There is no guarantee
he can win as the Democratic nominee, since his leftist views may alienate many
of the independent voters he needs to win. Some of the Democrats’ corporate
sponsors may actually find themselves preferring the mainstream Republican
candidate, especially if it is someone like Jeb Bush, whose family is deeply
connected to both big oil and the CIA.
This promises
to be both a chaotic and a fascinating election campaign.
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